Development of a crop size model to assist expansion planning

This paper provides an overview of the development and application of a crop size model for cane land assigned to the Mackay Sugar Cooperative Association Limited. The model is based on a series of linked Excel spreadsheets incorporating historical production data, and projected production increases resulting from an increased area under cane and expected yield improvements. Although the model projects production for 10 years, an annual review provides an opportunity for timely adjustments to variables, and reassessment of the model assumptions. Identification of the location and possible extent of crop growth has provided Mackay Sugar with a sound basis to evaluate likely capital and transport requirements, and to determine the viability of expansion options and the local industry's ability to grant additional assignment subject to the agreed season length constraint.