QUANTIFYING RISK OF LOSS FROM SUGARCANE DISEASES AND OTHER VARIETY RELATED CAUSES

SEVERE crop losses occurred following the outbreak of orange rust (Puccinia kuehnii) in the variety Q124 for the 2000 Queensland crop. The losses were most severe in the central district where Q124 comprised 87% of the district crop and was the sole variety on many farms. The BSES Central Regional Planning and Advisory Committee (RPAC) advocated a risk management plan to prevent a similar event happening in the future. The approach adopted was to quantify the consequences from ailments such as diseases and wind damage in susceptible varieties (e.g. sugarcane smut disease, $2250/ha), estimate the likelihood of occurrence (e.g. one year in ten), and calculate the annual risk (e.g. smut, $225/ha). The total annual risk for a variety susceptible to several ailments is calculated. Examples are: Q157, $625 /ha; Q138, $315/ha; Q170A, $60/ha. Risk was plotted against productivity potential to create a matrix of high, medium, low productivity against low, medium, high risk. The paper describes this concept for risk management. The approach was viewed by members of the Central RPAC as a method for highlighting risk on a farm and district basis. The information will encourage growers to adopt a range of varieties to reduce risk.