EXPLORING THE CAPABILITIES OF A LONG LEAD CLIMATE FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR THE NSW SUGAR INDUSTRY

Unexpected wet harvest seasons can have catastrophic consequences for the Australian sugar industry. With operational forecasting systems we typically have to wait until the end of Autumn (e.g. June) before more skilful forecasts can be produced about the harvest season ahead. Many important decisions however, such as when to start the crushing season, must be finalised much earlier in the year. This paper explores the capability of a new long lead forecasting system to predict prior to Autumn, the harvest rainfall. This investigation was conducted for three sugar growing regions in New South Wales (NSW), Harwood, Ballina and Condong. Results revealed that for all three locations, the threat of interruption to the harvest by rainfall could be detected as early as January when the model predicted that La Niña type conditions would emerge post-Autumn. This early warning forecasting capability offers the NSW sugar industry a valuable source of information to aid decisions that must be made early in the year and are impacted by rainfall much later in the year.